No notable factors
No bouts announced yet, so nothing to predict. Check back after the next schedule fetch.
| # | Bout | Our pick | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan Favoured Christian Leroy Duncan on: Reach 75" vs 79"; Sig. strikes absorbed /15m 56.2 vs 35.4; Striking defense 48% vs 54% (Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan) | Christian Leroy Duncan 56% | Brendan AllenSubmission, R5 | Misslean |
| 2 | Matheus Camilo vs Jai HerbertLate change Favoured Matheus Camilo on: Age 25.8 vs 38.4; Win rate 60% vs 42%; Striking defense 67% vs 53% (Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert) | Matheus Camilo 73% | Jai HerbertDecision | Missclear favourite |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen SouzaLate change | Loopy Godinez 61% | Loopy GodinezDecision | Hit |
| 4 | Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka IIILate change Favoured Kai Kamaka III on: Age 36.3 vs 31.8; Sig. strikes absorbed /15m (last 3) 105.9 vs 86.2; Striking accuracy 38% vs 59% (Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III) | Kai Kamaka III 62% | Andre FiliKO/TKO, R2 | Misslean |
| 5 | Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari TanziloviLate change | Otari Tanzilovi 55% | Otari TanziloviKO/TKO, R2 | Hit |
| 6 | Julius Walker vs Gerald MeerschaertLate change | Julius Walker 56% | Julius WalkerKO/TKO, R2 | Hit |
| 7 | Francisco Prado vs Ismael BonfimLate change | Francisco Prado 53% | Francisco PradoKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 8 | Niko Price vs Leon ShahbazyanLate change Favoured Leon Shahbazyan on: Age 37.0 vs 30.9; KO/TKO losses 6 vs 1; Control time /15m 133s vs 0s (Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan) | Leon Shahbazyan 56% | Niko PriceKO/TKO, R1 | Misslean |
| 9 | Felipe Franco vs Brendson RibeiroLate change Favoured Felipe Franco on: Age 25.7 vs 30.1; Win rate 50% vs 30%; Sig. strikes absorbed /15m 31.2 vs 51.9 (Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro) | Felipe Franco 67% | Brendson RibeiroSubmission, R1 | Missclear favourite |
| 10 | Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ HarrisLate change Favoured RJ Harris on: Win rate 33% vs 67%; Sig. strikes landed /15m 33.0 vs 135.0; Stance matchup n/a vs Orthodox (Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris) | RJ Harris 68% | Allen Frye Jr.KO/TKO, R1 | Missclear favourite |
| 11 | Alice Pereira vs Daria ZhelezniakovaLate change | Alice Pereira 72% | Alice PereiraKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 12 | Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa GattoLate change | Melissa Gatto 60% | drawDecision | DRAW |
| # | Bout | Our pick | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong | Natalia Silva 68% | Natalia SilvaDecision | Hit |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott | Payton Talbott 77% | Payton TalbottKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 3 | King Green vs Esteban Ribovics | Esteban Ribovics 59% | Esteban RibovicsKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 4 | Roberto Soldić vs Khaos WilliamsDebut Favoured Khaos Williams on: Win rate 50% vs 62%; Stance matchup n/a vs Orthodox; UFC wins 0 vs 7 (Roberto Soldić vs Khaos Williams) | Khaos Williams 60% | Roberto SoldićDecision | Misslean |
| 5 | Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov Favoured Ateba Gautier on: Age 24.5 vs 35.4; Reach 81" vs 75"; Win rate 86% vs 57% (Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov) | Ateba Gautier 76% | Roman KopylovKO/TKO, R1 | Missclear favourite |
| 6 | Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria Favoured Alden Coria on: Striking defense 58% vs 70%; Win rate 67% vs 80%; Sig. strikes absorbed /15m 35.3 vs 33.1 (Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria) | Alden Coria 53% | Imanol RodriguezKO/TKO, R1 | Misscoin flip |
| 7 | Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev | Damian Pinas 62% | Damian PinasKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 9 | Anthony Wint vs Lucas ArmandDebut | Anthony Wint 74% | Anthony WintKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 10 | Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin Favoured Mick Parkin on: Age 34.5 vs 31.0; Win rate 50% vs 71%; Striking defense 49% vs 60% (Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin) | Mick Parkin 58% | Johnny WalkerKO/TKO, R1 | Misslean |
| 11 | Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez | Alexander Hernandez 60% | Alexander HernandezKO/TKO, R2 | Hit |
| 12 | Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev | Ismail Naurdiev 68% | Ismail NaurdievDecision | Hit |
| 13 | Jacobe Smith vs Bruce WhiteheadDebutLate change | Jacobe Smith 71% | Jacobe SmithKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 14 | Court McGee vs Eric Nolan | Eric Nolan 55% | Eric NolanKO/TKO, R3 | Hit |
| # | Bout | Our pick | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos Viewer noteBeat Raoni Barcelos; both delivered a great fight. | Raul Rosas Jr. 65% | Raul Rosas Jr.KO/TKO, R5 | Hit |
| 2 | Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez Viewer noteWon, but it was closer to 50/50 than the model's 62%. | Ailin Perez 62% | Ailin PerezDecision | Hit |
| 3 | Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques DumasDebutLate change | Luis Hernandez 54% | Luis HernandezSubmission, R1 | Hit |
| 4 | Mahammadali Osmanli vs Ilimbek AkylbekDebut Favoured Mahammadali Osmanli on: Age 22.1 vs 23.1 (Mahammadali Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek) Viewer noteDisqualified for an illegal knee. | Mahammadali Osmanli 52% | Ilimbek AkylbekDQ, R1 | Missdisqualification |
| 5 | Melissa Amaya vs Tina BlackDebut | Tina Black 56% | Tina BlackKO/TKO, R2 | Hit |
| 6 | Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura Favoured Rinya Nakamura on: Sig. strikes absorbed /15m 56.3 vs 22.9; Takedown defense 43% vs 100%; Striking defense 51% vs 64% (Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura) Viewer noteMixed it up better, with wrestling and ground game. | Rinya Nakamura 60% | Brady HiestandSubmission, R2 | Misslean |
| 7 | Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek | Rodolfo Vieira 60% | Rodolfo VieiraDecision | Hit |
| 8 | Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian EdwardsShort notice Favoured Rodolfo Bellato on: Stance matchup Orthodox vs n/a; Win rate 43% vs 33%; Sig. strikes landed /15m 80.5 vs 36.0 (Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards) Viewer noteChristian Edwards took the fight on short notice. Viewer noteMixed it up really well and looked strong; decisive forward offence in round 3 won it. | Rodolfo Bellato 52% | Christian EdwardsKO/TKO, R3 | Misscoin flip |
| 9 | Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell | Elves Brener 59% | Elves BrenerKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
| 10 | Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon | Montel Jackson 59% | Montel JacksonKO/TKO, R2 | Hit |
| 11 | John Castaneda vs Alatengheili Favoured John Castaneda on: Layoff (days) 161 vs 518; Striking accuracy 52% vs 33%; Sig. strikes landed /15m (last 3) 78.7 vs 39.0 (John Castaneda vs Alatengheili) | John Castaneda 62% | AlatengheiliDecision | Misslean |
| 12 | Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui | Yazmin Jauregui 71% | Yazmin JaureguiKO/TKO, R1 | Hit |
Hit rate compared with what the model itself expected (its average confidence) for each group. A group is only flagged once it has at least 30 fights and the 95% range of its hit rate excludes the expectation; until then it is “collecting evidence”. Model changes are only made for flagged groups, and only if they also pass the walk-forward backtest on past seasons.
| Segment | Group | Fights | Hit rate | Expected | 95% range | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick confidence | 55-65% | 19 | 63% | 59% | 41%–81% | collecting evidence (19/30 fights) |
| Pick confidence | 65% and up | 11 | 64% | 71% | 35%–85% | collecting evidence (11/30 fights) |
| Pick confidence | under 55% | 6 | 50% | 53% | 19%–81% | collecting evidence (6/30 fights) |
| UFC debutant in the bout | no | 30 | 60% | 62% | 42%–75% | consistent with the model's own expectation |
| UFC debutant in the bout | yes | 6 | 67% | 61% | 30%–90% | collecting evidence (6/30 fights) |
| Late line-up change | no | 23 | 65% | 62% | 45%–81% | collecting evidence (23/30 fights) |
| Late line-up change | yes | 13 | 54% | 62% | 29%–77% | collecting evidence (13/30 fights) |
| How the fight ended | DQ | 1 | 0% | 52% | 0%–79% | collecting evidence (1/30 fights) |
| How the fight ended | Decision | 8 | 62% | 64% | 31%–86% | collecting evidence (8/30 fights) |
| How the fight ended | KO/TKO | 23 | 70% | 62% | 49%–84% | collecting evidence (23/30 fights) |
| How the fight ended | Submission | 4 | 25% | 59% | 5%–70% | collecting evidence (4/30 fights) |
| Scheduled rounds | 3 rounds | 31 | 61% | 62% | 44%–76% | consistent with the model's own expectation |
| Scheduled rounds | 5 rounds | 3 | 67% | 63% | 21%–94% | collecting evidence (3/30 fights) |
| Scheduled rounds | Unknown | 2 | 50% | 54% | 9%–91% | collecting evidence (2/30 fights) |
| Division | Men | 30 | 53% | 61% | 36%–70% | consistent with the model's own expectation |
| Division | Women | 6 | 100% | 65% | 61%–100% | collecting evidence (6/30 fights) |